KATMANDU, Nepal - The rebel victory appears to have been as unexpected as it was complete ? a battlefield win that has exposed the military weakness of Nepal's army and the political vulnerability of King Gyanendra's royal dictatorship.

Details of the assault are scant, but this much is known: the insurgents overran about 200 troops camped on a remote mountainside. At least 40 of the soldiers may have been executed. Dozens appear to have fled.

Days after Sunday's attack, the rebels' first major victory in months, the army has retaken the area around Tilli, about 340 miles northwest of Katmandu, and rescued some of the troops who fled. But the rebels say they are holding 50 soldiers prisoner, and even Nepalis who support the king say the attack was alarming

At home, Nepalis were split ? there were a few ardent supporters of the stumbling politicians who King Gyanendra had usurped, but many people also distrusted the king.

Militarily, the king's move has produced mixed results. Attacks have dropped in larger towns, but little has changed in the countryside, where the rebels remain in control of large swaths of territory.

Sunday's attack, analysts and opposition leaders say, could seriously weaken the king.

Inderjit Rai, an independent political analyst in Katmandu, called it "a major blow to the government."

"It proves the security situation is still vulnerable in much of the country," he said. "If the government fails to take control of the security situation then they lose support from all the people."

The rebels have a strong presence across much of rural Nepal, particularly in areas where there are few military outposts, and they control much of the isolated mountainous region in the Himalayan nation's northwest and midwest.

While they are believed to have about 20,000 fighters, few observers believe they could defeat the king and take control of the nation.

So far, the king's main political opposition comes from political parties pressing to get back into power ? and not a popular movement like the one that forced the previous king, in 1990, to establish a democracy.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050812/ap_on_re_as/nepal_vulnerable_kingdom_1